The Survivorship Trap
Social media is a museum of winning calls. The losing calls are deleted before sunrise. The cumulative effect is that every account looks eighty per cent accurate, and the public develops a wildly inflated expectation of what is possible. This is the survivorship trap, and it is the single largest source of bad prediction culture.
What a Public Ledger Forces
When every call is logged before first pitch and graded publicly the next morning, the ledger is forced into honesty. There is no edit button. Last month’s painful stretch is visible forever. So is the heroic one the next month. Together they form a track record. Apart, they are propaganda.
Why Ra Publishes Losses
Because the wins are meaningless without them. A sixty-three per cent win rate over hundreds of calls is a real claim because the denominator is verifiable. A ninety per cent win rate over a curated twenty calls is not.
What You Should Demand
From any analyst, any model, any service: timestamped calls, locked before first pitch, graded publicly. If they cannot show you their losses, they are not telling you their wins.